Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 9.712633 11.404952 13.255085 15.421385 17.881474 20.581372 23.761444
2025-02-02 7.227352 9.559429 12.365016 15.957509 20.400918 25.679995 32.386080
2025-02-09 5.666091 8.306162 11.750960 16.499541 22.788846 30.738166 41.435217
2025-02-16 4.412219 7.103560 10.880473 16.433717 24.231469 34.610964 49.254473
2025-02-23 3.416084 6.009266 9.903610 15.975713 24.958119 37.468652 55.852545
2025-03-02 2.635134 5.051507 8.923151 15.300869 25.197919 39.558352 61.440748
2025-03-09 2.158311 4.474865 8.409187 15.212102 26.216481 42.752290 68.733984
2025-03-16 1.751884 3.926434 7.836514 14.920586 26.839762 45.346395 75.261813
2025-03-23 1.580415 3.777167 7.915129 15.697976 29.206946 50.726159 86.284874
2025-03-30 1.356474 3.472559 7.659294 15.847005 30.521444 54.515252 95.054262
2025-04-06 1.156761 3.172648 7.360094 15.867052 31.592299 57.953223 103.439781
2025-04-13 0.983315 2.890049 7.046408 15.810146 32.500603 61.154266 111.595107
2025-04-20 0.933064 2.897118 7.343532 16.993026 35.795811 68.666441 127.411538
2025-04-27 0.852298 2.811349 7.433186 17.779852 38.439850 75.258026 142.114115
2025-05-04 0.771617 2.706341 7.463625 18.446669 40.910085 81.699217 156.917884
2025-05-11 0.657683 2.478111 7.173095 18.399241 41.989536 85.731948 167.792655
2025-05-18 0.538474 2.197440 6.705971 17.903351 42.124485 88.046547 175.768762
2025-05-25 0.429256 1.909899 6.164856 17.162446 41.677627 89.233290 181.771522
2025-06-01 0.364389 1.747821 5.918017 17.065523 42.546577 92.921470 192.448299
2025-06-08 0.302053 1.571295 5.596757 16.744361 42.898965 95.625624 201.436306
2025-06-15 0.284523 1.561248 5.746262 17.601594 45.882322 103.604122 220.581819
2025-06-22 0.249355 1.466557 5.629116 17.765876 47.330930 108.617272 234.352218
2025-06-29 0.215398 1.363211 5.465654 17.787981 48.454630 113.033640 247.177339